Iranpolymer/ Baspar As the world looks to reduce its dependence on fossil-based resources and move towards net zero, the transition from a linear to a circular plastics ecosystem is a critical global challenge. If left unchecked, global plastic waste production is set to almost triple by 2060, with around half ending up in landfill and less than a fifth recycled, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Almost two-thirds of that waste is anticipated to originate from short-lived items such as packaging, low-cost products and textiles.
Successfully navigating the future of plastic recycling will require unprecedented growth in infrastructure, the implementation of new business models and a critical alignment of stakeholder policies—all purposefully driven by effective government regulations and incentives. Circularity in the plastics economy is increasingly forming a fundamental part of policymaker and private industry approaches to the net-zero transition—but there are several key considerations to bear in mind. Here’s what to look out for.
Plastics collection and leakage concerns
One of the biggest challenges facing the transition to circular plastics is the collection challenge. According to the OECD report, plastic leakage to the environment is anticipated to double to 44 million tonnes (Mt) per year, while the build-up of plastics in lakes, rivers and oceans will more than triple. The majority of plastics pollution is generated from what is known as macroplastics, but leakage of microplastics from items such as textiles, industrial plastic pellets and tyres is also a significant factor.
Much of this increase is set to be driven by population growth, as well as improved standards of living in regions such as Africa, India and South East Asia. These regions are currently characterised by low collection rates when it comes to plastics, which means that a significant portion of this waste is entering the global environment through disposal into landfills and other avenues such as global water supplies.
Deploying the necessary plastics recycling infrastructure
Closely linked with the collections challenge is the fact that much of the required infrastructure to drive a reduction in plastic waste is severely lacking. Collection, sorting, processing and end-use application facilities remain in the very early stages of development in the majority of countries and lack harmonisation, which means that many collection systems are often overwhelmed with waste volumes of all materials.
At the same time, waste collection streams and systems are dispersed with low-input volumes, even in advanced economies such as the US and Western Europe. This issue is compounded by significant gaps in supply and end-use demand for recycled material, which makes achieving economies of scale challenging with the current status quo.
This state of affairs places significant economic pressure on current facilities and those operating them, risking long-term viability unless adequate solutions are found. As investment in plastics recycling infrastructure accelerates, it will be increasingly important for stakeholders to assess the potential impact of associated risks, costs and emissions. Access to the right data will be pivotal to get ahead of these concerns.
The fossil fuel-based feedstock challenge
The use of fossil-based feedstocks when it comes to plastic circularity is a further challenge to note. Recent research from Chemical Market Analytics has shown that half of global chemicals demand is driven by the needs of the plastic industry. However, even if plastic recycling efforts operated at 100% efficiency, the output would not be enough to meet the growing global plastic demand for plastics.
Furthermore, the recycling process will still require fossil fuels in the form of energy and raw materials. So while a circular plastics economy will contribute to a drop in greenhouse gas emissions, it’s important to incorporate plastic waste recycling as part of a holistic net zero strategy that approaches fossil fuel use reduction on multiple fronts.
Technological solutions to effect change
To drive effective change from a net-zero perspective however, new technologies must be developed and deployed across the plastics value chain. This will require keeping efficiency in materials and operation top of mind, and carrying out deep life cycle analyses that consider not only manufacturers of plastics polymers but also the end products. Such analyses—which should be carried out on a regular basis—should also bear in mind the competition that end products face against materials such as glass, paper and metal, to drive materials efficiency as appropriate.
When it comes to plastics recycling technologies in particular, mechanical and chemical recycling technologies are the two main solutions on offer—but both come with their own advantages and drawbacks. While users of mechanical recycling technologies benefit from lower CAPEX and operating costs by default, they are limited by feedstock flexibility and plastics degradation per each recycling cycle. Chemical recycling technologies on the other hand can bypass the degradation problem and produce recycled content at a high standard every time, but these technologies have not yet been commercialised at scale. Tracking the development of the various technologies and the pace at which they are developing to make the right investment calls is key—and having the right business intelligence at your fingertips will make the difference.
Approaching plastics circularity with net zero in mind
The plastics sector is at an unprecedented inflection point. Closing the circularity gap will require an unprecedented global alignment of government policies, stakeholder values, financial support, and application of transformative technologies. Infrastructure and technology investment at scale is urgently needed to address increasing volumes of plastics waste. Until then, the “Plastics End-of-Life” situation is expected to get worse before it gets better.
The transition to a circular plastics economy is an integral element within the overall effort to achieving net zero. However, to drive strategic action in this space, the industry needs to confront an important disruptive truth: there is not yet sufficient infrastructure and technology scaling solutions to meet the increasing demand for plastics recycling. A successful transition to circular plastics will require a paradigm shift from today’s inadequate curbside and commercial waste collection systems and processes.
As the market continues to evolve, access to trusted news, data and analysis on the factors influencing these variables will be fundamental in driving this shift forward. But ultimately the plastics conundrum cannot be addressed in isolation if countries are to meet their 2050 net zero commitments—it needs to be part of a broader sustainability strategy that addresses energy and material efficiency across the value chain to drive meaningful change.
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